Spring 2020 |   At the National Weather Service’s Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI), we’re currently planning milestones for the coming year with our partners. OSTI manages a broad portfolio of research and development efforts designed to improve operational forecast capabilities, and our partners in these efforts are in both the research and operational communities. We aim to understand forecaster priorities, and to communicate operational requirements so that community members can come up with innovative solutions… Read More

Spring 2020 | LinLin was born into a family of farmers in Southeast China where the weather is dominated by the Asian Monsoon. “I can’t remember how many times my parents sighed gravely in front of the ruined crops because of the wrong prediction of Mei-yu – endless rainy days during the summer. My family would starve in this case.” LinLin was determined to study weather to help farmers, and now he works to make sure severe weather events are forecasted accurately. Diligent and determined, Linlin was accepted into the Department of… Read More

Spring 2020 | The NOAA Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) are currently collaborating on using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) for the verification and validation of EMC’s suite of environmental prediction models, such as the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and the Rapid Refresh (RAP)/High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Both centers are currently working towards creating an operational configuration of MET that can be implemented on NOAA’s Weather… Read More

Spring 2020 | Dr. Jun Zhang, a scientist from the University of Miami and visitor to the DTC in 2018, investigated the impact of model physics on the forecast performance of hurricane models for hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification (RI). Accurate predictions of hurricane intensity could significantly reduce the economic loss, especially if a hurricane makes landfall at well-developed coastal regions.  Hurricane intensity is influenced not only by environmental factors but also by internal dynamics and thermodynamics. Previous… Read More

Spring 2020 | The Unified Forecast System (UFS) is a coupled, comprehensive Earth modeling and data assimilation system that will be used in NOAA operations and by the research community. There are naturally a lot of questions about UFS from potential collaborators, for example: What UFS codes are available to run? How do I find out more information about the project, and how can I get involved? One of the roles of the UFS Communication and Outreach Working Group (C&O WG, for short) is to communicate the answers to such questions… Read More

Spring 2020 |   The Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling laboratory at NCAR has been developing the Model Independent Chemistry Module (MICM) to represent chemical transformations in any atmosphere model. To make this happen, MICM is designed to work with the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Framework, a software defining how host models access physics parameterizations including chemistry. MICM gathers information on trace gases and chemical reactions from a database (coined the “Chemistry Café”). It then configures… Read More

2020-04-28 | Due to the current situation regarding COVID-19, the first Unified Forecast System (UFS) Users’ Workshop will be held virtually online, from 27-29 July, 2020. The aim of the workshop remains to establish an annual forum to exchange ideas, advance education on applying the UFS, and embrace the full potential of the community to support and help improve the UFS modeling and prediction system. A diverse group of participants from across the weather enterprise are encouraged to participate and engage in this forum, with the… Read More

2020-01-10 | The first Unified Forecast System (UFS) Users’ Workshop will take place on July 27-29, 2020 at NCAR's Center Green Campus in Boulder, Colorado, with the aim to establish an annual forum to exchange ideas, advance education on applying the UFS, and embrace the full potential of the community to support and help improve the UFS modeling and prediction system. It will feature lively engagement and discussions with diverse groups of participants from across the Weather Enterprise including public… Read More

Autumn 2019 | The Earth Prediction Innovation Center, or “EPIC,” will advance Earth system modeling skills, reclaim and maintain international leadership in Earth system prediction, and improve the transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) within NOAA by working closely with partners across the weather enterprise.  EPIC’s legislative language is included as an amendment to the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act (WRFIA) of 2017 (Public Law 115-25… Read More

Autumn 2019 | What does unified modeling mean to you? Perhaps an obvious meaning is that “unified” implies one single model: one choice for dynamics, physics, data assimilation, and postprocessing. Everyone uses the same code: universities, private companies, research labs, and operational prediction centers. It is a grand vision. As a community, we are not there yet. I argue that there is a more practical, and potentially more useful definition of unified modeling: codes are easily shared and interoperable. Why do I say this? At… Read More

Autumn 2019 | Tell us a little about yourself and your career path. I’m a Wisconsin native and grew up fascinated by severe storms. Naturally, when it came time to think about college, I looked for meteorology programs in the midwest. I settled on Saint Louis University for my B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences and then earned my M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee (UWM).  After graduation, I stayed on at UWM as a researcher while also working for a UWM-affiliated meteorological consulting company called… Read More

Autumn 2019 | Ensembles are useful forecast tools because they account for uncertainties in initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and/or model physics, and they provide probabilistic information to users. However, many ensembles suffer from under-dispersion, sub-optimal reliability, and systematic biases. Machine learning (ML) can help remedy these shortcomings by post-processing raw ensemble output. Conceptually, ML identifies (nonlinear and linear) patterns in… Read More

Autumn 2019 | One of the primary goals of the DTC is to provide software and infrastructure that aid in transitions between the research and operational communities.  The American Meteorology Society (AMS) provides an ideal venue for sharing these tools with the community through the AMS short course offerings at the Annual Meeting.  The DTC is looking forward to presenting two short courses at the 100th AMS Annual Meeting in Boston, MA in January 2020.  “Integrating Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) System Components… Read More

Autumn 2019 |   The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) were developed and released to the community by the Developmental Testbed Center more than a decade ago.  At that time, the tools included computation of traditional statistics for continuous fields (temperature, pressure, and height) and dichotomous fields (precipitation, clouds, fog, and high impact events). MET also included a spatial verification method, using objects, which complemented traditional statistics.   Over the past five years, new flexibility and… Read More

2019-10-11 | The AMS Short Course on Experimentation and Development of Physical Parameterizations for Numerical Weather Prediction Using a single-column model and the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)  will be held on 12 January 2020 preceding the 100th AMS Annual Meeting in Boston, MA. Preliminary programs, registration, hotel, and general information will be posted on the AMS Web site.     The goal of this course is to familiarize participants with new tools for experimentation and development of physical… Read More