Autumn 2019 | Ensembles are useful forecast tools because they account for uncertainties in initial conditions, lateral boundary conditions, and/or model physics, and they provide probabilistic information to users. However, many ensembles suffer from under-dispersion, sub-optimal reliability, and systematic biases. Machine learning (ML) can help remedy these shortcomings by post-processing raw ensemble output. Conceptually, ML identifies (nonlinear and linear) patterns in… Read More
Visitors: Using Machine Learning to Post-Process Ensemble-based Precipitation Forecasts
Visitor: Eric Loken
Community Connections: Container & CCPP AMS Short Courses
Autumn 2019 | One of the primary goals of the DTC is to provide software and infrastructure that aid in transitions between the research and operational communities. The American Meteorology Society (AMS) provides an ideal venue for sharing these tools with the community through the AMS short course offerings at the Annual Meeting. The DTC is looking forward to presenting two short courses at the 100th AMS Annual Meeting in Boston, MA in January 2020. “Integrating Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) System Components… Read More
Did you know?: METplus
Expanding Verification Capabilities Beyond the Basics
Autumn 2019 | The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) were developed and released to the community by the Developmental Testbed Center more than a decade ago. At that time, the tools included computation of traditional statistics for continuous fields (temperature, pressure, and height) and dichotomous fields (precipitation, clouds, fog, and high impact events). MET also included a spatial verification method, using objects, which complemented traditional statistics. Over the past five years, new flexibility and… Read More
Announcement: Experimentation and Development of Physical Parameterizations for Numerical Weather Prediction Using a Single-Column Model and the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)
AMS Short Course
2019-10-11 | The AMS Short Course on Experimentation and Development of Physical Parameterizations for Numerical Weather Prediction Using a single-column model and the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) will be held on 12 January 2020 preceding the 100th AMS Annual Meeting in Boston, MA. Preliminary programs, registration, hotel, and general information will be posted on the AMS Web site. The goal of this course is to familiarize participants with new tools for experimentation and development of physical… Read More
Announcement: Short Course on Containers and Cloud Computing at AMS Annual - 12 Jan 2020
AMS Short Course
2019-10-10 | The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) will host a short course on Integrating NWP System Components Using Container Technology and Cloud Services on 12 January 2020 preceding the 100th AMS Annual Meeting in Boston, Massachusetts. The goal of this course is to raise awareness about tools and facilities available to the community for testing and evaluating Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) innovations, including the emerging set of software tools in reusable containers and cloud computing resources, through hands-on… Read More
Bridges to Operations: Advanced Physics Testing
Spring 2019 | With funding from the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) initiative and broad support from the community, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) recently replaced the dynamic core in its flagship operational model, the Global Forecast System (GFS). Version 15 of the GFS (GFSv15), implemented in operations on June 12, 2019, includes the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) non-hydrostatic dynamical core in place of the long-running spectral hydrostatic core… Read More
Lead Story: NOAA and NCAR partner on new modeling framework
NCAR and NOAA MOA
Spring 2019 | NCAR and NOAA are each adopting a unified approach to coupled environmental modeling, where success for both efforts is critically dependent on community contributions. At the end of January 2019, NCAR and NOAA signed a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) to develop a shared infrastructure that encourages the broader community to engage in improving the Nation’s weather and climate modeling capabilities. Collaborating on the development of a common infrastructure will reduce duplication of effort and create common community… Read More
Director's Corner: The Operational FV3 Era
Clark Evans
Spring 2019 | We stand at the dawn of the operational FV3 era, representing the first step in the implementation of NOAA's Next-Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). With this new era comes many challenges, but also many opportunities to work collaboratively to improve the operational modeling system. How can NOAA best work with the community to leverage these opportunities and develop a truly world-class weather and climate prediction system? A few ideas: Develop a decadal vision for world-class numerical weather prediction.… Read More
Who's Who: Gerard Ketefian
Spring 2019 | Gerard Ketefian tries to “get big computers to tell him if it’s going to be sunny or rainy or snowy tomorrow, and the next day, and the day after that, and…” that’s how he explains his job to a child - and he has two -- a 2-year old boy and 4-year old girl. Gerard’s background is engineering. He has a B.S. in civil and mechanical engineering and M.S. in environmental engineering with emphasis on environmental fluid mechanics (both air and water). Gerard’s Ph.D. involved computational fluid dynamics applied to atmospheric… Read More
Visitors: Forecast Skill of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model for Banded Snowfall Events
Visitor: Jacob Radford
Spring 2019 | Jacob Radford, a Ph.D. student at North Carolina State University and visitor to the DTC during June of 2018, investigated the forecast skill of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for banded snowfall events. In particular, he evaluated the HRRR’s ability to capture the location, areal extent, orientation, and aspect ratio of these locally enhanced regions of reflectivity. In theory, snowbands should be adequately resolved by the HRRR thanks to its fine grid-spacing, but model skill has not yet been assessed… Read More
Community Connections: Model Evaluation for Research Innovation Transition (MERIT)
Spring 2019 | The Model Evaluation for Research Innovation Transition (MERIT) project provides a critical framework for physics developers to test innovations within their schemes using selected meteorological cases that have been analyzed in depth. Comparing their results to baseline MERIT simulations will allow developers to determine whether their innovations address model shortcomings and improve operational numerical weather prediction. For the DTC’s AOP 2018, three high-impact global FV3 baseline cases were selected for in-… Read More
Did you know?: There are Specialized Tools to Evaluate Innovations for NWP of TC's
Spring 2019 | Model Evaluation Tools – Tropical Cyclone (MET-TC) was first developed in 2012 by the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) as part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to provide a set of tools to aid in tropical cyclone forecast evaluation and verification. The primary goal of MET-TC was to replicate the functionality of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) verification software while utilizing the modular tools available within the MET software framework. The MET-TC software was first released with METv4.1… Read More
Director's Corner: NOAA’s emerging effort in community modeling
Ricky Rood, University of Michigan
Winter 2019 | I am the Co-chair, along with Hendrik Tolman, of the Unified Forecast System – Steering Committee (UFS-SC), one of the governance bodies in NOAA’s emerging community modeling effort. The overall goal of the UFS activity is to have a unified forecast system that can be configured to meet the many applications in NOAA’s product suite.
Community Connections: The DTC helps the research community enhance the GSI/EnKF operational data assimilation system
Winter 2019 | Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are operational data assimilation systems, open to contributions from scientists and software engineers from both operations and research. The development and maintenance of NOAA GSI/EnKF data assimilation systems are coordinated and managed by the Data Assimilation Review Committee (DARC), which incorporates all major GSI/EnKF data assimilation development teams in the United States within a unified community framework. DARC established a code… Read More
Did you know?: The Next Generation Global Prediction System
Summer 2018 | The Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) multi-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) connects federal and academic experts in the numerical weather prediction community to support the end-to-end functionality of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Production Suite. The goal of the SIP is to help evolve the NGGPS into a Unified Forecast System (UFS) for operations and research. The SIP governance includes UFS Working Groups who represent the essential science, technical, and design… Read More
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