National Workshop On Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction | Presentations

Wednesday, 23 September

8:00 – 8:30 Registration, continental breakfast

8:30 – 8:35 Welcome. Bill Kuo, DTC (5 minutes)

Session I: Why are we here? What are the future national requirements for mesoscale probabilistic prediction? Chair: Evan Kuchera, AFWA*

Don Berchoff: National Weather Service goals and requirements. The 4-D Data Cube and FAA NexGen needs (15 minutes)*

Cliff Mass: Requirements of probabilistic information and current issues (15 minutes)*

Panel Representing Major Users and Providers of Weather Information ( 10 minutes each). Future requirements/issues for probabilistic information

Hydrology: Keith Brill, NOAA*
Media: Ian Miller, Weather Channel *
Energy: 3-Tier (Eric Grimit)*
Aviation: FAA representative
Military: AFWA or Navy representative

Plenary discussion: 20 minutes

10:15-10:45 Break

Session II: What is the current status of mesoscale probabilistic prediction in the U.S. and around the world? Chair, Bruce Rose, The Weather Channel*

12:00–1:30 Lunch Break

The NCEP SREF: Current Situation and Future Plans. Jun Du, EMC, NCEP *

The Met Office short-range ensemble system — MOGREPS. Ken Mylne, UK Met Office*

Overview of Canadian regional ensemble system development. Martin Charron, Environment Canada*

Overview of the Northwest Regional Probabilistic Prediction System. Cliff Mass, University of Washington*

An Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System: E-RTFDDA – System Design and Verification. Y. Liu1, T. Hopson1, G. Roux1, J. Hacker1, M. Xu1, T.T. Warner1 and S. Swerdlin, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA*

General Discussion: Any other major U.S. or international efforts to note? Further comments on the above talks (15 minutes)

3:15-3:45 Break

Session III: Overview Talks: Major Technical Challenges. Chair: Ming Xue, OK*

The NSSL Mesoscale Prediction System. David Stensrud, NSSL

Ensemble Prediction at the U.S. Air Force: JEFS and Beyond. Evan Kuchera, NCAR*

Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation and Hurricane Prediction: Ryan Torn, SUNY Albany*

Ensemble Prediction and Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling: Dave Stauffer, Penn. State*

NAEFS and GFS Ensemble Update: Zoltan Toth, NOAA ESRL

Rapid Refresh Ensemble System: Stan Benjamin, NOAA ESRL*

5:15 – 7:00 Reception

Thursday, 24th September

8:00-8:30 Coffee and continental breakfast

Session IV: Discussion of Major Issues in Breakout Groups

8:30-8:45 Status report: AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF). Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*

8:45-9:00 Overview of breakout group sessions, charge to groups. Bill Kuo, DTC. Each group will have a chair and scribe. Each will be responsible to prepare a summary for plenary meeting.

Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System: What is it, What does it take to be effective, and What are the impacts of shortcomings? Tony Eckel, NPS*

Postprocessing of ensembles. Applications of reforecasting. Computer resource issues. Tom Hamill, NOAA ESRL*

Considerations in designing and implementing a mesoscale modeling and postprocessing system. Bob Glahn, NOAA NWS*

Verification and evaluation of a national probabilistic prediction system. Barbara Brown, NCAR*

Ensemble-based data assimilation, an essential component of a future mesoscale ensemble system? Fuqing Zhang, Penn State*

Bayesian model averaging, EMOS, and other ensemble post-processing approaches. Adrian Raftery, UW *

9:00-10:15 Breakout groups meet to discuss their issues

10:15-10:45 Break

10:45-12:00 Breakout groups continue discussion and prepare short reports

12:00-1:30 Lunch

1:30-2:15 Presentation of breakout group 2-4 reports

Group 1: How can the various elements of the U.S. meteorological community work together to enable the nation to produce an effective mesoscale probabilistic prediction capability? How should the leadership be structured? Ideas include national advisory committee, permanent working groups, and others. What should be the role of the DTC? What should be the follow-on of this meeting? Chair: Bob Glahn

Group 2: Building a national mesoscale ensemble system. How can a system be created that provides sufficient diversity and detail? How many members, at which resolution, which domains, driven by which large-scale models, using what approach for physics and surface diversity? What are the issues with domain size and lateral boundary conditions. What has been learned by previous attempts that we can apply? What computational resources are required? How can they be secured? Chair: Tony Eckel*

Group 3: Post-Processing. What are the viable approaches to post-processing, including BMA, reforecasting, EMOS, regression-based systems and others. How do we evaluate which are best? Chair, Tom Hamill*

Group 4: Communication and display of probabilistic information. What are the major deficiencies in our knowledge on how to communicate uncertainty information? What studies or tests need to be done to gain the necessary knowledge to deal with this issue? Chair: Susan Joslyn

Group 2 Report
Group 3 Report
Group 4 Report

2:15-2:45 Plenary discussion

2:45-3:15 Break

Session V: Synthesis and Summary. Chair: Barbara Brown

3:15-3:30 Presentation breakout group 1 report

3:30-4:00 Time for specific plans proposed by attendees (5 minutes each) Zoltan Toth/Tom Hamill/Cliff Mass

4:00-5:00 Plenary discussion. How do we proceed now? Volunteers for preparation of a white paper report summarizing the meeting's findings and recommendations.

5:00 Meeting adjourn

*confirmed talks