hurricanes

Hurricane image

Evaluating Innovations for Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

The DTC currently focuses its testing and evaluation of hurricane forecast systems on limited area mesoscale models with storm-following nesting capabilities. While the DTC does from time to time evaluate hurricane forecasts systems run by collaborating model groups, testing and evaluation by our Hurricane team generally focuses on configurations of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model run by the DTC. HWRF, a NOAA operational model for hurricane prediction, has several components (atmospheric model, coupler, ocean model, initialization and postprocessing), and the tests may emphasize one or more of these components. The alternate configurations for HWRF used in the tests can originate from NOAA/NCEP, from the DTC itself, or HWRF developers located in research laboratories and universities.

The ultimate goal of the DTC’s hurricane forecast systems testing and evaluation activities is to evaluate the performance of a new NWP technique for extended retrospective periods that encompass a variety of large scale atmospheric and oceanic regimes. Such extended period testing provides a robust data set for objective forecast verification, including the assessment of statistical significance. And yet, important information can also be gathered by considering case studies. Hence, some hurricane forecast system testing and evaluation activities may include a hierarchy of tests ranging from case studies to extended periods.

Team

Primary Contact

Scientists

Software Engineers

Publications

Biswas, M. K., L. Carson, K. Newman, C. Holt, and L. Bernardet, 2016: Community HWRF Users Guide v3.8a NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR GSD 47, 141 pp.

Biswas, M. K., L. Carson, C. Holt, L. Bernardet, 2015: Community HWRF Users’ Guide V3.7a. NOAA Tech Memo OAR GSD-46, 152 pp.

Bernardet, L., V. Tallapragada, S. Bao, S. Trahan, Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, M. Tong, M. Biswas, T. Brown, D. Stark, L. Carson, R. Yablonsky, E. Uhlhorn, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, T. Marchok, B. Kuo, and R. Gall, 2015: Community Support and Transition of Research to Operations for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 953–960. http://dx.doi. org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00093.1

Tallapragada, V., L. Bernardet, M. K. Biswas, I. Ginis, Y. Kwon. Q. Liu, T. Marchok, D. Sheinin, B. Thomas, M. Tong, S. Trahan, W. Wang, R. Yablonsky, X. Zhang, 2016: Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model: 2015 Scientific Documentation. NCAR Technical Note doi:10.5065/D6ZP44B5. NCAR/TN-522+STR, 122 pp. 

Yablonsky, RM, I Ginis, B Thomas, V Tallapragada, D Sheinin and L Bernardet, 2015: Description and Analysis of the Ocean Component of NOAA's Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. , AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 32 ( 1 ) , 144-163, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00063.1, issn: 0739-0572, ids: AZ4WL, JAN 2015

Biswas, M. K., L. Bernardet, and J. Dudhia (2014), Sensitivity of hurricane forecasts to cumulus parameterizations in the HWRF model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 9113–9119, doi:10.1002/2014GL062071.

Bernardet, L., E. Uhlhorn, S. Bao, J. Cione, 2013. Evaluation of the ocean response in HWRF: how changes in the atmosphere- ocean fluxes affect forecast skill. 67th Interdepartamental Hurricane Conference (IHC), College Park, MD, March 3-7.

Bernardet, L., S. Bao, V. Tallapragada, S. Trahan, M. Biswas, T. Brown, D. Stark, and L. Carson, 2013. HWRF testing and user support at the Developmental Testbed Center. NOAA Testbeds Workshop, College Park, MD, 2013, April 2-3.

Bernardet, L., V. Tallapragada, S. Bao, Y. Kwon, S. Trahan, M. Tong, Q. Liu, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, R. Yablonsky, and T. Marchok, 2013. Hurricane WRF: 2013 operational implementation and community support. 14th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-28.

Bernardet, L., S. Bao, T. Brown, M. Biswas, D. Stark, L. Carson (2012). Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF model at the Developmental Testbed Center. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.

Bernardet, L., V. Tallapragada, S. Bao, Y. Kwon, S. Trahan, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, R. Yablonsky, B. Thomas, T. Marchok, 2012. Hurricane WRF: 2012 operational implementation and community support. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 25-29.

Bernardet, L., S. Bao, M. Biswas, T. Brown, D. Stark, and L. Carson (2012), Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF model at the Developmental Testbed Center. 66th Interdepartmenal Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, March 2012, 1 72-72.

Bernardet, L., S. Bao, V. Tallapragada, S. Trahan, Z. Zhan, M. Biswas, T. Brown, D. Stark, and L. Carson, 2012. Hurricane WRF: Transition of Research to Operations Facilitated by the Developmental Testbed Center. 92nd American Meteorological Conference on Transition of Research to Operations. New Orleans, LA.

Bernardet, L. S. Bao, M. Biswas, T. Brown, D. Stark, and L. Carson, 2012.
Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF model at the Developmental Testbed Center. 66th Interdepartmenal Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC, March.

Bernardet, L., S. Bao, C. Harrop, D. Stark, T. Brown, and L. Carson, 2011. Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyclone Numerical Modeling – The Role of the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC). 65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in Miami, FL, February 28 – March 2.

Bernardet, L., L. Nance , S. Bao, B. Brown, L. Carson, T. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. Harrop, and J. Wolff, 2010. HFIP high-resolution hurricane forecast test: Overview and results of track and intensity forecast verification. American Meteorological Society. 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, 10–14 May, 2010.

Bernardet L., S. Bao, D. Stark, C. Harrop, and L. Carson, 2010. Hurricane WRF support by the Developmental Testbed Center. 11th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, 21-25 June.

Biswas, M. K., L. Bernardet, and S. Bao, 2012. Sensitivity of HWRF forecasts to cumulus parameterizations. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 25-29.

Gall, R., F. Toepfer, F. Marks, E. Rappaport9, A. Aksoy, S. Aberson, J.W. Bao, M. Bender, S. Benjamin, L. Bernardet, M. Biswas, B. Brown, J. Cangialosi, C. Davis, M. DeMaria, J. Doyle, M. Fiorino, J. Franklin, I. Ginis S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Hamill, R. Hodur, H.S. Kim, T. Krishnamurti, P. Kucera, Y. Kwon, W. Lapenta, N. Lett, S. Lord, T. Marchok, P. McCaslin, E. Mifflin, L. Nance, C. Reynolds, V.Tallapragada, H. Tolman, R. Torn, G. Vandenberghe, T. Vukicevic, X. Wang, Y. Weng, J. Whittaker, R. Yablonsky, D-L. Zhang, F. Zhang, J. Zhang, X. Zhang. 2013. NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) research and development activities summary: recent results and operational implementation. HFIP Technical Report: HFIP 2013-1.

Nance, L., L. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, L. Carson, T. L. Fowler, J. Halley Gotway, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. Wolff, and H. Yuan, 2011. The HFIP high resolution hurricane forecast test. 20th American Meteorological Society Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, June 1-5.

Nance, L., L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. K. Wolff, and H. Yuan, 2010. L. R. Bernardet, S. Bao, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, C. W. Harrop, E. J. Szoke, E. I. Tollerud, J. K. Wolff, and H. Yuan, 2010. The HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test: Beyond the traditional verification metrics.AMS 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Tucson, AZ, 10–14 May.

Zhou, C., H. Shao, M. Hu, L. Bernardet, X.-Y. Huang and B. Etherton, 2012. Improved Hurricane Forecast through GSI-Hybrid data assimilation: A case study. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 25-29.

Zhou, C., H. Shao, L. Bernardet, 2013. Testing and evaluation of the GSI-Hybrid data assimilation and its applications for hurricane forecasts. 14th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-28.