regional ensemble

Regional Ensemble image

Assessing the Merits of New and Innovative Ensemble Modeling Techniques

As operational centers move towards ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting, it was critical for the DTC to expand its efforts into this area in order to continue to serve as a bridge between research and operations. Hence, the DTC expanded its testing and evaluation activities to include ensemble systems in 2010. The DTC currently focuses its ensemble testing and evaluation activities on mesoscale ensemble prediction. The goal of this task area is to provide an environment in which extensive testing and evaluation of ensemble-related techniques developed by the NWP community can be conducted such that the results are immediately relevant to the operational centers (e.g., NCEP/EMC and AFWA). The new and innovative ensemble modeling techniques tested and evaluated by the DTC can originate from universities, other testbeds that focus on specific research topics, and research and development wings of other agencies. Planning and execution of the ensemble testing and evaluation activities is closely coordinated with the operational centers. While case studies can provide important information, the majority of DTC ensembles testing and evaluation activities focus on extended retrospective periods. These tests apply appropriate verification metrics for ensemble systems, including the assessment of statistical significance.

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are utilized in both research and operational forecasting applications and can generally be configured to suit a broad spectrum of weather regimes. Due to the number of approaches developed and offered by these NWP systems, it is necessary to rigorously test select configurations and evaluate the performance for specific applications. The DTC's Mesoscale Modeling testing and evaluation (T&E) activities largely focus on retrospective forecasts generated by the DTC. In the past, the DTC's Mesoscale Modeling team has focused on WRF-based T&E activities. While the DTC will continue WRF-based T&E activities for the foreseeable future, it has become necessary to broaden the scope of internal T&E activities to include new software frameworks (i.e., NEMS) utilized by the relevant operational centers (i.e., NOAA). This effort is vital for the DTC to continue to serve as a bridge between research and operations and work is on-going on this front. T&E activities usually focus on extensive retrospective time periods in order to provide a robust data set for objective forecast verification, including the assessment of statistical significance, but case studies will also be considered from time to time in order to obtain more detailed information on the performance of a specific NWP technique.

Team

Primary Contact

Scientists

Software Engineers

Publications

Harrold, M., H. Jiang and J. Wolff, 2013: Investigating Seasonal and Regional Differences of the WRF-ARW HIRES Window Physics Suite. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-27, 2013.

Jiang, H., M. Harrold and J. Wolff, 2013: Investigating the impact of surface drag parameterization schemes available in WRF on surface winds. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-27, 2013.

Wolff, J.K., P. Jimenez, J. Dudhia, G. Lackmann, K. Mahoney and M. Harrold, 2013: Demonstrating the utility of the Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET) in a research environment. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-27, 2013.

Wolff, J. K. and M. Harrold, 2013: Tracking WRF performance: How do the three most recent versions compare? 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-27, 2013.

Xu, Mei, J. Wolff and M. Harrold, 2013: Inter-Comparison of AFWA Operational Configurations Using WRFv3.3.1 and WRFv3.4. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-27, 2013.

Harrold, M., J. Wolff, T. Jensen, H. Jiang, C. Phillips. T. Slovacek, G. Lackmann, J. Dudhia, P. Jimenez, 2013. The Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET): Assisting with the transition of promising NWP techniques from research to operations. NOAA Testbeds Workshop, College Park, MD, April 2-3, 2013.

Du, J., G. DiMego, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, B. Ferrier, M. Pyle, B. Yang, G. Manikin, J. Zhu, J. Wolff and B. J. Etherton, 2013: Newly Upgraded 16km Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System at NCEP. Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications, Austin, TX, January 7-10, 2013.

Fowler, T. L., B. G. Brown, J. K. Wolff and L. B. Nance, 2013: Meaningful evaluation strategies for numerical model forecasts. Third Conference on Transition of Research to Operations, Austin, TX, January 7-10, 2013.

Wolff, J. K., M. Harrold, T. Jensen, H. Jiang, T. Slovacek, G. M. Lackmann, J. Dudhia, P. Jimenez, B. A. Colle and C. F. Mass, 2013: Utilizing the Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET) to Transition Promising New Research Techniques from Research to Operations. Special Symposium on Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasts: Innovative Techniques and Applications, Austin, TX, January 7-10, 2013.

Wolff, Jamie K., Brad S. Ferrier, Clifford F. Mass, 2012: Establishing Closer Collaboration to Improve Model Physics for Short-Range Forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, ES51-ES53. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00248.1

Harrold, M., J. Wolff, J. Halley Gotway, P. Oldenburg, Z. Trabold, 2012: Inter-Comparison of the WRFv3.3.1 AFWA Operational and RRTMG-Replacement Configurations. 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 26-29, 2012.

Wolff, J. K., L. Nance, B. S. Ferrier, C. F. Mass, B. G. Brown, Y-H Kuo, 2012: Transitioning Promising New Mesoscale Innovations from Research to Operations: Defining a Process to Bridge the "Valley of Death." 13th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 26-29, 2012.

Wolff, J. K., L. Nance, B. S. Ferrier, C. F. Mass, B. G. Brown, Y-H Kuo, 2012: Bridging the valley of death: Defining a process for transitioning promising new mesoscale innovations from research to operations. 25th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/21st Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Montreal, Canada, May 29 - June 1, 2012.

Harrold, M., J. Wolff, J. Halley Gotway, P. Oldenburg, Z. Trabold, 2012: Inter-Comparison of the AFWA Operational and RRTMG-Replacement Configurations using WRFv3.3.1. 25th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/21st Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Montreal, Canada, May 29 - June 1, 2012.

Wolff, J. K., 2011: DTC: Serving to bridge the research and operational NWP communities. NWP Workshop on Model Physics with and Emphasis on Short-Range Prediction, Camp Springs, MD, July 26-28, 2011.

Harrold, M., J. Wolff, Z. Trabold and L. Nance, 2011: Testing and Evaluation of WRF Reference Configurations. 12th WRF Users Workshop, 20-24 June 2011, Boulder, CO.

Wolff, J. K., B. G. Brown, J. Halley Gotway, M. Harrold, Z. Trabold, L. Nance and P. Oldenburg, 2011: Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Verification Comparison Between the Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) Operational Models. 12th WRF Users Workshop, 20-24 June 2011, Boulder, CO.

Wolff, J. K., B. Brown, J. Halley Gotway, M. Harrold, Z. Trabold, L. Nance and P. Oldenburg, 2011: Quantitative precipitation forecast verification comparison between the Global Forecast System and North American Mesoscale operational models. Preprints, 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, January 24-27, 2011.

Wolff, J. K., L. Nance, J. Halley Gotway, P. Oldenburg, M Harrold and Z. Trabold, 2011: WRF QNSE Test and Evaluation. 20th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA, January 24-27, 2011.

Wolff, J. K., B. Brown, J. Halley Gotway, M. Harrold, Z. Trabold, L. Nance and P. Oldenburg, 2010: QPF verification comparison between the GFS and NAM operational models. 3rd WMO International Conference on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting and Hydrology. 18-22 October 2010, Nanjing, China.

Wolff, J. K., L. Nance, J. Halley Gotway and P. Oldenburg, 2010: WRFv3.1.1+ QNSE Test and Evaluation. 11th WRF Users Workshop, 21-25 June 2010, Boulder, CO.

Wolff, J. K., L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet and B. G. Brown, 2010: Implementation of WRF Reference Configurations. 11th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 21-25, 2010.

Wolff, J. K., L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet and B. G. Brown, 2009: WRF Reference Configurations - Update. 10th WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 23-26, 2009.

Bernardet, L. R., J. Wolff, L. Nance, A. Loughe, B. Weatherhead, E. Gilleland and B. G. Brown, 2009: Comparison between ARW and NMM objective forecast verification scores. 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. 1-5 June 2009, Omaha, NE, American Meteorological Society.

Wolff, J. K., L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet and B. G. Brown, 2009: WRF Reference Configurations. 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. 1-5 June 2009, Omaha, NE, American Meteorological Society.

Bernardet, L., J. Wolff, L. Nance and E. Gilleland, 2008: Objective verification results from forecasts generated with the ARW and NMM dynamic cores of the WRF model. 9th WRF Users Workshop, 23-27 June 2008, Boulder, CO.

Wolff, J. K., B. Weekley, L. Nance, L. Bernardet and B. Brown, 2008: WRF Reference Configurations - Concept and Plans.9th WRF Users Workshop, 23-27 June 2008, Boulder, CO.

Bernardet, L., L. Nance, M. Demitras, S. Koch, T. Fowler, A. Loughe, J. L. Mahoney, H. Chuang, M. Pyle and R. Gall, 2008: The Developmental Testbed Center and its winter forecasting experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 89, 611-627.

Brown, J. M., S. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, L. B. Nance, R. S. Collander and C. W. Harrop, 2007: Rapid Refresh Core Test: aspects of WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM performance relevant to the Rapid Refresh application. 22nd Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conf., Park City, Utah, AMS.

Bernardet, L.R., L. Nance, H.-Y. Chuang, A. Loughe, M. Demirtas, S. Koch and R. Gall, 2005: The Developmental Testbed Center Winter Forecasting Experiment. 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 7.1.

Demirtas, M., L.B. Nance, L.R. Bernardet, Y. Lin, A. Loughe, R. Gall and S. E. Koch, 2005: Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) verification of DWFE. 17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 7.2.

Koch, S.E., R. Gall, G. DiMego, E. Szoke, J. Waldstreicher, P. Manousos, B. Meisner, N. Seaman, M. Jackson, R. Graham, A. Edman and D. Nietfeld, 2005: Lessons learned from the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment. 17th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 7.6.

Szoke, E., S. Koch and D. Novak, 2005: An examination of the performance of two high-resolution numerical models for forecasting extended snow bands during the DTC Winter Forecast Experiment. 21st Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, D.C., Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 7.3.

Bernardet, L., P. Bogenschutz, J. Snook, A. Loughe, 2005. WRF Forecasts over the Southeast United States: Does a larger domain lead to better results? WRF/MMM5 Users Workshop, Boulder, CO.

Nance, L., L. Bernardet, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, M. Demirtas, R. Gall, S. Koch, Y. Lin, A. Loughe, J. Mahoney and M. Pyle, 2005: The WRF Developmental Testbed Center: A status report. WRF/MM5 Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 2.8.

Bernardet, L.R., L. Nance, H.-Y. Chuang, A. Loughe and S.E. Koch, 2004: Verification statistics for the NCEP WRF pre-implementation test. Part 1: Deterministic verification of ensemble members. First Joint WRF/MM5 Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, 229-232.

Davis, C., L. Nance, L. Bernardet, M. Pyle and H. Chuang, 2004: WRF forecasts of recent significant weather events: A comparison of ARW and NMM cores. First Joint WRF/MM5 Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, 243-246.

Seaman, N., R. Gall, L. Nance, S. Koch, L. Bernardet, G. DiMego, J. Powers and F. Olson, 2004: The WRF process: Streamlining the transition of new science from research into operations. First Joint WRF/MM5 Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, 173-17.