7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop | Agenda
Day 1
08:00 Arrival and Registration
08:30 Bill Lapenta/Hendrik Tolman- Welcoming Remarks
08:35 Yuejian Zhu & Walter Kolczynski- Introduction/Logistics
Session 1 - Current State of Global Ensembles
08:40 Hendrik Tolman UMAC Recommendations and NGGPS Plan
09:00 Roberto Buizza Current State of ECMWF Ensemble
09:30 Dingchen Hou Current State of NCEP Global Ensemble
10:00 BREAK
Session 2 - Current State of Regional Ensembles // Ensemble Training
Chair: Mark Klein
10:20 Jun Du- Current State of NCEP Regional Ensembles
10:50 Zhan Zhang- HWRF Ensemble
11:10 Henrique Alves- Wave Ensemble Review EMC
11:30 Bill Bua- Training on EPS: Keeping abreast of new applications
11:45 Jordan Alpert- NCEP Data Distribution
12:00 LUNCH / POSTER SESSION
Session 3 - Current Use and Requirements of Ensembles by Regions
Chair: Israel Jirak
13:30 Dave Novak- Efforts to Expand Probabilistic Hazard Information
14:00 Jack Settelmaier- Using GIS to Display, Assess, and Convey Ensemble Model Output
14:15 Richard Grumm- Ensemble use and requirements at Eastern Region
14:30 Jeff Craven- Ensemble use and requirements at Central Region
14:45 Andy Edman- Ensemble use and requirements at Western Region
15:00 BREAK
Session 4 - Current Use and Requirements of Ensembles by NCEP Service Centers
Chair: John Wagner
15:15 Dan Collins- Ensemble use and requirements at CPC for S2S climate forecasting: Predictability and uncertainty
15:30 Yu Zhang- Ensemble Postprocessing at the National Water Center
15:45 Joseph Sienkiewicz- Ensemble use and requirements at OPC
16:00 Mark Klein Ensemble use and requirements at WPC
16:15 Eric Blake Ensemble use and requirements at NHC
16:30 Matt Kucas Applications of Ensemble Forecast Data at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
16:45 Israel Jirak Ensemble use and requirements at SPC
17:00 Jung-Hoon Kim Ensemble-based Global Aviation Turbulence Forecasting Techniques and Verifications
17:15 ADJOURN FOR DAY
Day 2
Session 5 - Future Ensemble Plans at NCEP
Chair: Jon Gottschalck
08:30 Dave DeWitt- Community Requirements for Sub-Seasonal Forecasts
09:00 Suranjana Saha- Coupled DA and modeling at NCEP & Development of the EMC Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS
09:15 Yuejian Zhu- NCEP Plans for Week 3-4 Forecasts
09:30 Wei Li-GEFS Experiments to 35 days
09:45 Jun Du/Geoff DiMego- HREF Plan
10:00 Zoltan Toth- Initial Perturbations: Problem Solved?
10:15 BREAK
10:30 Session 6 - Open Discussion on User Requirements and NCEP Plans
Chairs: Yuejian Zhu & Walter Kolczynski
12:00 LUNCH
Session 7 - Ensemble Development I
Chair: Dingchen Hou
13:00 Glen Romine- Review of Storm-Scale Ensemble Research
13:25 Nigel Roberts- Science and Strategy for Probabilistic Forecasting from a Convection-Permitting Ensemble
13:50 Isidora Jankov- A Performance Comparison Between Multi-Physics and Stochastic Approac13hes Within a North American RAP Ensemble
14:05 Curtis Alexander- Development of HighResolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecasts and Post Processing
14:20 Ping Li- Predictability of persistent maxima of 500-hPa geopetential height in the GEFS Reforecast
14:35 Phillip Pegion- Stochastic Parameterization Development in the Global Forecast System
14:50 BREAK
Session 8 - Ensemble Development II // Post-processing & Verification
Chair: Isidora Jankov
15:10 Shan Sun- Subseasonal Forecasting with CFSv2 and FIM-HYCOM Ensemble
15:25 Ben Green- Extending MJO Predictability Using a Multi-Model Ensemble
15:40 Tom Hamill- Post-Processing Workshop Summary
15:55 John Wagner- The National Blend of Models MDL
16:10 Yuejia Zhu- Multi-model Ensemble Forecast Using Recursive Bayesian Model Process EMC
16:25 Hui-ya Chuang- nceppost Unification
16:40 Brian Colle- Validation of Extra-tropical and Tropical Cyclones in the Global Ensembles Along the U.S. East Coast and Western Atlantic
16:55 Minghua Zheng- Scenario-Based Forecast Verification of U.S. East Coast Winter Storms in Multi-model Ensembles
17:10 ADJOURN FOR DAY
Day 3
Session 9 - Ensemble Applications I
Chair: Yu Zhang
08:30 John Schaake- Hydrological Applicaions
08:45 James Porter- Ensemble Forecasts and Decision Making for the NYC Water Supply and Downstream Stakeholder
09:00 Tijana Jovanovic- Hydrologic ensemble forecasting across the U.S. middle Atlantic region Penn Stat
09:15 Justin Schulte- The Stevens Flood Advisory System. Super-ensemble flood forecasts for the New York / New Jersey Harbor and the surrounding region.
09:30 Jack Kain- Using a frequently updated, storm-scale ensemble prediction system (EPS) for quantitative precipitation nowcasting
09:45 Adam Clark- Application and Evaluation of The Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) during the 2016 NOAA/HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
10:00 BREAK
Joint Session 1 - International Ensembles Chair: Zoltan Toth
10:20 Yuejian Zhu- NAEFS Review
10:40 Stéphane Gagnon- NAEFS Applications at CMC
11:00 River Chen- Ensemble Development at CWB
11:20 Medha Deshpande- Preliminary results of GEFS implemented for short range prediction at IITM
11:40 Jing Chen- CMA's Global Ensemble
12:00 LUNCH
Joint Session 2 - Ensemble Applications II
Chair: Jun Du
13:00 Huiling Yuan- Prediction of Extratropical and tropical cyclones by TIGGE Ensemble Prediction Systems
13:15 Jonq-Gong Chern- The Applications of Ensemble GFS at Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
13:30 Piers Buchanan- Ensemble Forecast Applications at the Met Office UK
13:45 Jian Tang- Recent progress on ensemble applications and verifications at NMC of China
14:45 BREAK
Joint Session 3 - Ensemble Applications III
Chair: Walter Kolczynski
15:00 Hong Guan- GEFS reforeacst and its applications
15:15 Michael Sestak- NAEFS Applications at Navy
15:30 Evan Kuchera- Delivering Decision Superiority to the Warfighter
15:45 Malaquias Peña- EMC seasonal ensemble forecasting: the NMME and the IMME projects
16:00 Open Discussion on Improving the Research-to-Operations-to-Research Loop
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