2008 Verification Workshop

The goals for this meeting were to demonstrate the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) to the community; discuss new state-of-the-art forecast evaluation methods that should be included in future releases; and to discuss user requirements for verification tools and future system components (e.g., database, display, distributed processing capabilities).

Presentations

Wednesday, April 16

• Introduction and goals Barbara Brown (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• DTC Overview Louisa Nance (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• A verification service for DTC Jennifer Mahoney (NOAA/ESRL; Boulder, CO)
• MET overview Lacey Holland (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• Development of a verification method testbed Mike Baldwin (Purdie Univ.; W. Lafayette, IN)
• Discussion - general topics Barbara Brown (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• Spatial methods Beth Ebert (BOM; Melbourne, Australia)
• Overview of spatial method intercomparison Dave Ahijevych (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• Probability and ensemble methods Laurie Wilson (Env. Canada; Montreal, Canada)
• R methods and rank histograms Matt Pocernich (NCAR; Boulder, CO)

Thursday, April 17

• Spread-skill relationships Tom Hopson (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• Verification of Hydrologic Forecasts in the NWS Yuqiong Liu (NOAA/OHD)
• Spatial evaluation of ensemble forecasts Bill Gallus (Iowa State, Univ.) and Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada)
• Verification Service Plans Sean Madine (NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO)
• Discussion - Verification service
• Inference methods Ian Jolliffe (Univ. of Exeter, UK)
• Bootstrap methods Eric Gilleland (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• Discussion - inference methods Matt Pocernich (NCAR; Boulder, CO)

Friday, April 18

• Observation uncertainty overview Barbara Brown (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• Estimation of observation uncertainty in data assimilation Josh Hacker (NCAR; Boulder, CO)
• Verification of cloud parameters: a future role for satellite imagery? Marion Mittermaier (Met. Office; UK)
• Wavelet reconstruction of sparse observations Barbara Casati (Ouranos; Canada)
• Discussion - obs uncertainty issues Beth Ebert (BOM; Melbourne, Australia)
• NCEP Cyclone track evaluation Geoff DiMego
• Verification of extremes Barbara Casati (Ouranos; Canada)
• Types of reference forecasts: making the appropriate choices Marion Mittermaier (Met. Office; UK)
• Discussion - extremes and standards of reference Martin Goeber (DWD; Offenbach, Germany)
• Summary of priorities and recommendations

Bonus talks

• Current NCEP verification system Mike Charles
• Grid-box mean vs. point verification Martin Goeber
• Rank histograms Ian Jolliffe