Director's Corner: NOAA’s emerging effort in community modeling

Ricky Rood, University of Michigan

Winter 2019 | I am the Co-chair, along with Hendrik Tolman, of the Unified Forecast System – Steering Committee (UFS-SC), one of the governance bodies in NOAA’s emerging community modeling effort. The overall goal of the UFS activity is to have a unified forecast system that can be configured to meet the many applications in NOAA’s product suite.

Who's Who: Tracy Hertneky

Winter | Tracy Hertneky "floats through the air with the greatest of ease" -- or does she? This daring young woman flying in an aerial silk (one of her many hobbies is being an aerialist - like in the Cirque du Soleil)-- doesn’t actually like to fly and requests the superpower to be able to teleport. She dreams of visiting places from New Zealand to Belgium (loves the beer) and the Summer Olympics! Plus, the ability to teleport would certainly be more efficient for travel and help in her role as a new mom to Juliet who was born… Read More

Bridges to Operations: Use of Model Evaluation Tools in NWS QPF Verification

Winter | The National Weather Service (NWS) Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) is developing an automated, nationally consistent and centralized service that verifies Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF). This QPF Verification Service (QPFVS)  will provide objective assessments of the predictive skill of numerical model guidance and official NWS forecasts to help increase the accuracy of quantitative precipitation forecasts. QPFVS will be implemented as a component of a larger gridded verification system with… Read More

Visitors: Towards a better understanding of the vertical aerosol distribution in the atmosphere

Visitor: Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher

Winter | On 14 April 2010, increasing volcanic activity, including explosive eruptions, were observed at the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull. The volcano was largely unknown by the general public until then. On that particular day, however, the volcano started ejecting fine ash into the atmosphere, which was advected towards continental Europe. Major disruptions of the air traffic across western and northern Europe were necessary in order to ensure aviation safety. Several countries closed their airspace, affecting… Read More

Community Connections: The DTC helps the research community enhance the GSI/EnKF operational data assimilation system

Winter 2019 | Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are operational data assimilation systems, open to contributions from scientists and software engineers from both operations and research. The development and maintenance of NOAA GSI/EnKF data assimilation systems are coordinated and managed by the Data Assimilation Review Committee (DARC), which incorporates all major GSI/EnKF data assimilation development teams in the United States within a unified community framework. DARC established a code… Read More

Did you know?: The Formal FV3GFS Evaluation

Winter | Implementing the GFS global model with the FV3 dynamic core upgrade into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Production Suite will be the first step towards a Unified Forecast System (UFS). But prior to any new code being delivered to NCEP Central Operations, the NCEP Director must decide whether the implementation should occur, based on recommendations from the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and customers and stakeholders in the field at the conclusion of a formal evaluation period. EMC’s  … Read More

Lead Story: Hierarchical Model Development and Single Column Models

Summer | Earth system models connect the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and depend on proper representations of dynamics and physics, initial conditions, and interactions of these processes to predict future conditions. Standard meteorological variables are used to validate typical numerical weather prediction models but are gross measures of these countless interactions and limit their usefulness for guiding model improvement. Some fraction of error in these metrics can be the result of specific physical parameterizations, but it can… Read More

Did you know?: The Next Generation Global Prediction System

Summer 2018 | The Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) multi-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) connects federal and academic experts in the numerical weather prediction community to support the end-to-end functionality of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Production Suite. The goal of the SIP is to help evolve the NGGPS into a Unified Forecast System (UFS) for operations and research. The SIP governance includes UFS Working Groups who represent the essential science, technical, and design… Read More

Director's Corner: NOAA Embraces Community Modeling to Advance Weather Prediction

Brian Gross, Acting Director EMC

Summer 2018 | NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) are embarking on a new strategy of community engagement for developing the numerical weather prediction models that provide NWS forecasters with the best possible guidance. By engaging the broader numerical modeling community, NWS will leverage the vast modeling expertise that resides therein, since each model developer offers a unique perspective about modeling challenges and possible solutions.

Who's Who: Guoqing Ge

Summer 2018 | Guoqing Ge on Trail Ridge Road

Bridges to Operations: Tests Conducted at DTC Lead to Operational Implementation of Innovations in Physics and Data Assimilation in HWRF

Summer 2018 | The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) is one of NOAA’s operational models used to predict the track, intensity, and structure of tropical cyclones. Each winter, scientists at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), and NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD) perform testing and evaluation (T&E) on possible changes to the HWRF physics schemes, dynamic core, and data assimilation system that have the potential to improve HWRF predictions. Many of these… Read More

Visitors: Impact of Vertical Advection Schemes of the Hydrometeors on the Simulated Hurricane Structure and Intensity

Visitor: Shaowu Bao

Summer 2018 | Advection is a computationally expensive process in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Therefore, time-sensitive operational forecast models sometimes sum up the hydrometeors, including cloud water, rainwater, ice and snow, prior to calling the advection scheme. For this configuration, the model only needs to calculate the advection of the total condensate. However, the impact of such a time-saving technique has not been systematically evaluated. With the release of HWRF 3.9a, a version of the operational HWRF… Read More

Community Connections: 2018 DTC Community Unified Forecast System Test Plans and Metrics Workshop

July 30 - August 1, 2018

Summer 2018 | The 2018 DTC Community Unified Forecast System Test Plan and Metrics Workshop was held at NOAA’s National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCEP) on July 30 - August 1, 2018. The major goal of this workshop was to work towards a community test plan with common validation and verification metrics for the emerging Unified Forecast System (UFS). The plan will serve as a guide for the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) community for testing and evaluating new developments for the UFS models and components by… Read More

Lead Story: Keeping up with Model Testing & Evaluation Advances: New Verification Displays

Winter 2014 | As numerical model predictions and functions proliferate and move toward ever higher resolution, verification techniques and procedures must also advance and adapt.