The Unified Forecast System (UFS) Hurricane Application, known as the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), was implemented into operations in June 2023. Prior to all operational implementations, NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and its partners conduct rigorous pre-implementation testing and evaluation (T&E) to ensure its operational readiness. To assist EMC with pre-implementation T&E, the DTC developed a HAFS verification framework and contributes to HAFS advancement through in-depth testing of innovations. This work supports more seamless research-to-operations (R2O) transitions and ultimately improved forecast skill.
The HAFS verification framework, which provides researchers the ability to quickly evaluate HAFS configurations, is powered by the enhanced Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) and focuses on verifying tropical cyclone-related fields, as well as the storm environment. The DTC is continually working to advance the capabilities of this verification framework with the goal of providing timely actionable feedback to the development process.
Working closely with the HAFS developers at EMC and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and subject-matter experts (SMEs), the DTC utilizes the HAFS verification framework, as well as other tools at their disposal, to test and evaluate candidate innovations directed at improving the predictive skill of HAFS. This testing may address the advancement of physics through process-based studies or other aspects of the modeling system, such as ensemble techniques. Engaging with researchers via the DTC Visitor Program is an important mechanism for accelerating the integration of innovations into the HAFS repository and facilitating the testing of innovations from the broader research community.
