GOES-R brightness temperature to evaluate the vortex structure forecast by the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)

Date: -
Location: VIRTUAL

HAFS is intended to be a multi-scale model capable of analyzing and forecasting the inner core structure of the TC out to seven days, which is critical for improving size and intensity forecasts. EMC conducted a HAFS pre-implement test in the summer of 2021 using hurricanes from the years 2019 and 2020. Not only the track and maximum wind errors must be evaluated, but also the vortex structures of hurricane forecasts. In recent years, brightness temperature images from the GOES-R satellite have been extensively used to verify hurricane vortex structures. In this study we used the CRTM version 2.3 library to generate model-synthesized GOES-R brightness temperature images from the 2021 pre-implement test output and then compared them to the observed ones. The model was demonstrated to be generally successful at forecasting realistic synthetic GOES images, though some discrepancies were noticed. Similarly, comparisons of observed GOES-R with Hurricane WRF (HWRF) synthetic images were also made, and the results showed that the HAFS model outperformed the then-operational HWRF in reproducing the vortex structure and intensity as indicated by the GOES-R brightness temperature fields.