Sea Ice Modeling Workshops

Sea Ice

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Sea Ice Modeling Workshops

February 2-4, 2016 | NCAR Center Green Campus, Boulder, Colorado

Sea Ice Workshops | Day 1: ONR SeaState Sea Ice Forecasting Workshop | Day 2: NGGPS Community Sea Ice Model Recommendation Workshop

A joint workshop will be held that encompasses the ONR Sea State Sea Ice Forecasting Workshop and the NWS NGGPS Community Sea Ice Model Workshop. Both workshops have the general goal of advancing forecasting in high latitude regions. Participants can register for one or both meetings. More information on the purpose for the individual meetings is below.

SeaState Workshop Purpose

This workshop will assess the performance of prototype sea ice modeling initiatives led by NOAA/ESRL and NRL in support of the ONR Sea State DRI fieldwork. The Sea State deployment included wave­-ice studies, atmospheric flux measurements, and sensor deployments from the R/V Sikuliaq from September 30 through November 15, 2015 in the marginal ice zone. Similar efforts led by NRL in support of the Healy Arctic missions conducted in July – October will also be discussed.

NGGPS Workshop Purpose

The overarching purpose of the workshop is to inform NOAA on inclusion and selection of a community-contributed sea ice model into the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) and on potential research and development opportunities and gaps. The NGGPS will be a single fully coupled Earth forecast system with application to forecasts from days to seasons. While the selected NGGPS sea ice model needs to have good performance for all forecast applications, this workshop will emphasize the short- and medium-term sea ice forecast needs as part of the broader unified weather to climate modeling suite. Considerations will include the performance of the sea ice model for both sea ice forecasting and as part of the coupled system. This workshop will bring together experts from the community to discuss the state of sea ice modeling and forecasting as part of the coupled system and the understanding of predictability to inform the selection of the NGGPS sea ice model, enhance collaborations and highlight areas of needed research and development.

Organizing Committee

Marika Holland (NCAR), Janet Intrieri (NOAA OAR ESRL), Rick Allard (NRL), Bob Grumbine (NOAA NWS), Cecilia Bitz (UW), Eugene Petrescu (NOAA NWS AR), Annarita Mariotti (NOAA OAR CPO)

Workshop Sponsors

NOAA National Weather Service
NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research - Climate Program Office
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Office of Naval Research

Agenda

Sea State Modeling/Forecasting Workshop PDF

NGGPS Sea Ice Model Workshop Agenda PDF

DAY 1 / Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Sea State Modeling/Forecasting Workshop

Building CG-1 Auditorium
NCAR Center Green Campus
3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, CO 80301



0800 - 0830     Workshop Check-in / Coffee

0830 - 0840     Workshop Motivation  (5-10 min w/QA)

  • Workshop motivation, goals, anticipated outcomes - Scott Harper (ONR)

0840 - 0910     Sea State Cruise Overview (30 min: 10 min + 5 min QA, ea)

           
0910 - 1010     Sea State Modeling & Forecasting(60 min: 10 min + 10 min QA, ea)

Each speaker to describe the forecast model, system components, coupling, initialization fields, boundary conditions, data assimilation; bias corrections; validation strategy & examples; process study foci & analysis plans; hindcasts; limits of predictability; testing & model adjustments planned for next freeze-up season

1005 - 1025     Break
           
1025 - 1055     Perspectives on Assessing Skill & Metrics(30 min: 5-10 min w/QA, ea)

1055 - 1100     Setting up for Break-Outs

1100 - 1200     Break-Outs - Part 1 (60 min)
Four rotating groups to successively build-out input for each topic listed below. Each group rotates every 30 mins (2 BOG rotations before lunch & 2 after lunch).  Assigned moderator & rapporteur stay with each topic to capture consistent notes.

BOG1:  Observations for Validating/Evaluating/Improving Model Performance
[Lead – Jim Thomson; Note-taker - Janet Intrieri] Room 2503

  • Validating the model fields using SeaState observations
    • List the observation datasets & fields to validate against
    • Is there value in developing any master obs files (with uncertainties)?
    • Which obs are in the GTS; Are the errors in the observations documented?
    • Should we run a parallel validation exercise, using the same initial  conditions, to compare large scale dynamics & state parameters? Do we then progress down to the differences in the boundary layer to address model differences & process issues?
    • How can we best assess boundary condition differences with obs?
    • Is there value in focusing on a case study to assess effect of “incorporating” waves & their impacts?
    • Should we determine which initialization fields are optimal & run a coordinated model intercomparison to quantify?
  • Evaluating the models using observations from SeaState & beyond
    • What comparisons should we make between the observations & models to evaluate performance?
    • Is a single season of model validation meaningful, if not, how should we extend the record, how long should the hindcasts be run for?
    • What additional obs should we use?
    • What reanalyses are “best” for our purposes?
  • Improving model performance using SeaState observations
    • What parameterizations can we validate against observations?
    • What initial observations can we use to affect model changes, & rerun to test modifications against?
    • What obs would fill the largest gaps in our understanding of processes aid in model representation?
    • What 2016 field campaigns are planned  can we obtain any needed observations?
    • Is there a YOPP or PPP aspect we should be positioning for in 2017-2018?

BOG 2: Understanding Key Processes
[Lead - Amy Solomon; Note-taker – Pam Posey] Room 2603

  • What have we learned from observations taken during SeaState that inform process understanding during freeze-up?
    • What processes are most important at various timescales?
    • What role do ocean waves play in ice break-up?
    • What coupled processes were observed at the ice edge?
    • How does ocean stratification impact freeze-up?
  • Challenges to verifying key processes in forecasts with in-situ data
    • Using point measurements to verify coarsely-resolved models
  • What have we learned from model forecasts of the SeaState period that inform process understanding during freeze-up?
    • What processes must be explicitly represented, versus which can be parameterized fairly accurately?
    • What processes influence predictability & predictive skill at various timescales?
    • What are the sources of large model errors? Which of these errors need to be addressed first to improve forecasts?
  • What suite of process-oriented diagnostics can best constrain simulated ocean-ice-atmosphere-cloud feedbacks in the marginal ice zone?
  • Are there specific case studies for a model intercomparison study?
    • What is the best strategy for separating errors due to model physics versus initialization & boundary conditions?

BOG 3: Intercomparisons/Metrics  
[Lead - Rick Allard; Note-taker – Chris Cox] Room 2607

  • What are our goals for intercomparison or coupled-process improvement?
  • How can we best evaluate skill (ice concentration, drift, ice edge, fluxes)?
  • What metrics are standard & which are best to evaluate the models?
  • Would it be useful to run models with a hierarchy of complexity (for example, fixed ocean/mixed-layer ocean/dynamic ocean) to evaluate sources of skill?

BOG 4: Model Improvement Plans
[Lead – Annarita Mariotti ; Note-taker – Mimi Hughes] Room 1214 (Main Room)

  • What model improvements are being planned?
  • Are ensemble runs being considered? How would the metrics be addressed?
  • Should there be an intercomparison exercise after adjusted models are completed?
  • What model products are most useful?
  • Are there new forecast products that should be developed?
  • Discuss next field season opportunities for observations & forecast validation
  • Should we propose an Arctic testbed exercise for forecast comparisons, observations, validation?

1200 - 1245     Working Lunch Discussion (45 min / provided, on-site)

1245 - 1345     Break-Outs - Part 2 (60 min)

1345 - 1405     Break to gather thoughts for report-outs (20 min)

1405 - 1535     Break-Out Reports (90 min: 10 min + 10 min QA, each BOG)

  • Report-outs from the 4 BOG Leads
  • Develop comprehensive list of input from all groups on model intercomparison strategies & skill metrics; identified process studies; analysis priorities; improvement & testing runs, new development; etc.  

           
1535 - 1545     Break

1545 -1645      Outline Next Steps for Forecast Comparisons, Process Understanding, & Model Improvement Plans (60 min)

  • Prioritize tasks from compiled BOG list
  • Outline next action steps, POC’s, timeline, deliverables, etc.
  • Discuss next field season opportunities & possible Arctic testbed exercise
  • Discuss missing pieces, gaps, coordination & activities that need funding
  • Assign presenter for next day’s summary presentation to NGGPS
  • Determine workshop community output piece & ongoing communication plan

1645                Workshop Adjourns
1800                Group dinner (Location TBD)


0800 - 0830     Workshop Check-in / Coffee

0830 - 0900     Workshop Welcome  Janet Intrieri (NOAA ESRL)

0900 - 1000     Perspectives on Community Sea Ice Model Needs & Criteria
Rick Allard (NRL)

  • 0935 - 0950 An overview of envisioned prediction products out of the NGGPS in view of their application -e.g., extent? thickness? lead time? uncertainty quantification? resolution etc.
  • 0950 - 1000 Perspectives on verification/criteria for NGGPS sea ice model selection

1000 - 1020     Break

1020 - 1230     Candidate Model Round-Up
Cecilia Bitz (UW)

  • Current Wx-Scale to Seasonal Scale Sea-ice prediction systems (10 min)
    • Prediction intercomparison example - Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (UW)
  • Presentations of candidate models (10 min each)

[Presentations should include overview info, initializations, processes, readiness/maturity, feasibility of community model configuration and NEMS compatibility, code management philosophy, processes represented, initialization, boundary conditions, outputs, applicability limits, future envisioned development path/support, computational costs, code/documentation availability, skill metrics/criteria/experiments/data used for evaluation for each model; behaviour as part of coupled models, etc.]

  • Discussion of common model threads, capabilities, products, feasibility, etc. based on the presentations

1230 - 1330  Working Lunch Discussion (60 mins / provided, on-site)

1330 - 1530     Model Selection Criteria/Skill/Testing - Break-Outs
                        Janet Intrieri (NOAA ESRL)
Four rotating groups to successively build-out input for each topic below. Each group rotates every 30 mins.  Assigned moderator stays with each topic to capture consistent notes.

BOG 1 Room 1214:  Develop criteria for the sea ice model selection that consider the unified model applications  and community modeling support
Lead: Bob Grumbine; Note-taker: Becki Heim

BOG 2 Room 2503: Determine skill metrics for testing candidate models
Lead: Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/EMC; Note-taker: Mitch Bushuk

BOG 3 Room 2603: Provide input on model testing methodology & goals, mechanism for reviewing results, and delivery of recommendation
            Lead: Rick Allard, NRL; Note-taker: Frederick DuPont

BOG 4 Room 2607: Model development path/community engagement
                                    Lead: Marika Holland; Note-taker:Adrian Turner

            1530 - 1600     Break to gather thoughts for report-outs

1600 - 1645     Break-Out Group Reports & Plenary Discussion (45 min: 10 min ea) Annarita Mariotti (NOAA CPO)

  • Report-outs from the 4 BOG leads
  • Develop comprehensive list of input from all groups; summarize

1645                Workshop Adjourns


NGGPS Sea Ice Model Workshop
Building CG-1 North Auditorium Room 1214
NCAR Center Green Campus
3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, CO 80301

DAY 3 / Thursday, February 4 - NGGPS Workshop

Remote access info: 
Note: participants need to register before joining. For audio, there are options of using a telephone or the GoToWebinar audio. It is preferable to use the telephone option. 

Webinar information
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1728222644188934145
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and the phone number to use.
View System Requirements

0800 - 0830     Workshop Check-in / Coffee

0830 - 0945     Other Key Considerations(75 min - 5-10 min plus QA)
Marika Holland (NCAR)

0945 - 1010     Break

1010 - 1200     Outline Next Steps - Ligia Bernardet (NOAA ESRL)

  • Summarize NGGPS deliverables, timeline, etc.
  • Discuss coordination opportunities and needs
  • Develop specific comparisons/testing projects and participants
  • Capture gaps and desired evolution pathway over next few years to meet needs
  • Discuss/finalize workshop recommendations/output

1200                Workshop Adjourn