7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop

ensembles workshop

  • About
  • Agenda
  • Logistics
  • Participants
  • Presentations
  • Contacts

7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop

2016 Jun 13-15 at NCWCP

The 7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop will be held at NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) in College Park, Maryland during the period June 13-15, 2016. The purpose of the workshop is (i) to bring together experts and users involved in the generation and use of NCEP ensembles, (ii) to review progress on the generation and use of operational products since our last meeting in March 2014, and (iii) to discuss plans for future efforts and collaborations. The main goal of the workshop is to support NWS in its transition from single value to probabilistic forecasting. The ultimate goal is to convey forecast uncertainty in a user-relevant form. Collaborative efforts on the national (NUOPC, DTC) and international (NAEFS, NMME) scale will also be discussed.


The workshop is organized by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) jointly with the NCAR Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) whose goal is to facilitate the future testing and transition of newly developed methods into operations, with support from the Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) of NWS.
The themes include:

  1. Current state and plan of operational ensembles and products
    1. What is the current state of operational ensembles? The reviews include all scales and downstream applications, such as regional, global, climate, wave/surge, hydrological, hurricane and etc …
    2. What products and guidance are available to users? The reviews include the products from NCEP UPP, NAEFS SPP, SREF post products (and others) for public, NBP for NWS and etc…
  2. User requirements and future plans
    1. How are ensembles currently used by broader users? The reviews include NCEP centers, NWC, fields (regions and WFO/RFC), private sectors and etc…
    2. What are the evidence-based requirements for future ensemble generations? Those include future storm scale ensemble, week 3&4 global ensemble and others.
    3. How can we work together to fulfill those requirements within operational limitations? This includes the reviews of UMAC’s recommendations, plan of NGGPS, ensemble post-processing, plan for reanalysis/reforecast and others.
    4. How can we improve our services for broader users? Those will cover data distribution, product generation, product visualization, forecast verification and others.
  3. Encourage national/international community participation and cooperation
    1. How do we engage the community to encourage external model development and facilitate research-to-operations (and operations-to-research)? This includes the discussions from NCAR/DTC, NGGPS project, MMAP project, NMME, NOAA testbeds and others.
    2. How can external developers make the R2O process easier, making it more likely their work will be incorporated operationally?
    3. How can we enhance national cooperation through various projects? This includes ESPC/NUOPC, NMME and others.
    4. How can different nations increase cooperation to improve (combined) ensemble products and future development? This includes experiences sharing from NAEFS, NMME, many foreign national centers (and institutions).

Agenda

Final Agenda (.pdf) - updated 6/8/2016

Remote Access Instructions | 7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop — 2016 Jun 13-15

8th Annual NAEFS Workshop — 2016 Jun 15-17 College Park, MD

Video — WebEx

Audio

  • Audio — Please keep your phone muted unless asking a question!
  • 866-756-2072 4546287#

Problems? Contact Walter Kolczynski: Walter.Kolczynski@noaa.gov

*Remote Access instructions can be found on the Agenda page.

Hotels in the area of the NCWCP Building

Residence Inn, Greenbelt

6320 Golden Triangle Drive
Greenbelt, MD 20770
Phone 301-982-1600
Standard Rate start at $233.00 but if you are a Marriott Rewards Member, it may be a little cheaper.
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly.
Shuttle is available.  Check at Front Desk for scheduling shuttle.

Hilton Garden Inn

7810 Walker Drive, 
Greenbelt, Maryland, 20770
Phone 301-474-7400 
FAX: 301-474-7411
Standard Rate start at $189.00
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly.
Shuttle is available. Check at Front Desk for schedule shuttle.

Holiday Inn

10000 Baltimore Blvd. 
College Park, Maryland 
Phone: 301-345-6700 
Fax: 301-982-4361 
Standard Rates start at $133.00
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly
Shuttle is available. Check at Front Desk for scheduling shuttle.

Best Western

8419 Baltimore Avenue
College Park, Maryland, 20740-2437, US 
Phone: 301-220-0505
Fax: 301-220-0355
Standard Rates start at $143.00
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly.
No Shuttle Service Available.

Driving Directions: 5830 University Research Court

From: North

  • 495 East (Inner Loop) to MD 201, Kenilworth Ave. South
  • Right on River Road (this has a very small turning lane and can be hard to see)
  • Right on University Research Court (Street sign is very small)
  • Left into the site near the end of the cul-de-sac
  • Right into the parking area / garage

From: South

  • 495 North (Outer Loop toward Baltimore/College Park) to MD 201, Kenilworth Ave. South
  • Right on River Road (this has a very small turning lane and can be hard to see)
  • Right on University Research Court (Street sign is very small)
  • Left into the site near the end of the cul-de-sac
  • Stay to far right lane (near guard station) to identify yourself to the security guard
  • Right into the parking area / garage
directions
Alessi Aldave, Aldo Piero SENAMHI
Alexander, Curtis NOAA/ESRL/GSD
Archambault, Heather NOAA Climate Program Office/MAPP Program
Barrie, Dan NOAA CPO
Barry, Alpha Boubacar Direction Nationale de la Météorologie
Beck, Jeff NOAA/ESRL/GSD
Bodner, Mike NOAA/WPC
Brennan, Michael NWS/NCEP/NHC
Bua, Bill UCAR/COMET
Buchanan, Piers Met Office
Carman, Jessie NOAA/OAR
Chaouch, Naira Masdar Institute
CHEN, JEN-HER Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
Chen, Deng-Shun Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan
Chen, Jen-Her Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
CHERN, JONQ-GONG Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
CHIH-CHIA, WANG Central Weather Bureau
Clark, Adam NOAA/OAR/NSSL
Colle, Brian Stony Brook University
Collins, Dan CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Cosgrove, Brian NOAA/NWS/NWC
Cui, Bo EMC/NCEP/NOAA
DePodwin, Daniel AccuWeather
Deshpande, Medha Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Dorian, Tracey EMC/NCEP/NOAA
Du, Jun EMC/NCEP/NOAA
Formenton, MArco ENEL TRADE spa
Fresch, Mark NOAA/NWS
Fu, Bing EMC/NCEP/NOAA
Georgas, Nickitas Stevens Institute of Technology
Green, Benjamin NOAA/ESRL and CU/CIRES
Guan, Hong SRG @ EMC/NCEP/NOAA
Harrold, Michelle NCAR/RAL & DTC
Herr, Henry NWC
HongQi, Li China Meteorological Administration
Hynes, Brodie comphydro, inc.
James, Sim NOAA/OAR
Jankov, Isidora NOAA/GSD/CIRA
Jing, Chen China Meteorological Administration
Jirak, Israel NOAA/SPC
Kain, Jack NOAA/NSSL
Kim, Jung-Hoon Aviation Weather Center (AWC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA) and CIRA/CSU
Klein, Mark NCEP/WPC
Kolczynski, Walter NOAA/NWS/EMC via IMSG
Kucas, Matt Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Kuchera, Evan US Air Force Weather
Kurkowski, Nicole NWS/OSTI
Ladwig, Terra NOAA/ESRL/GSD & CIRES
Laing, Arlene CIRES and NOAA/NWS/WPC
Lamberson, William WPC/IMSG
Lee, Hyun-Chul CPC\NCEP\NOAA
Lee, Haksu NOAA/NWS/NWC
Li, Wei NCEP/EMC
Liu, Yun University of Maryland- college park
Liu, Ping Stony Brook University
Liu, Yuqiong NOAA/NWS/NWC
Luo, Yan NCEP/EMC
Mariotti, Annarita CPO
Melhauser, Christopher EMC
Meng, Wen NOAA/NCEP/EMC
Mitchell, Kenneth Prescient Weather Ltd.
Myrick, David NOAA/NWS/STI/MDL
Neilley, Peter The Weather Company / IBM
Oliveira, Marcio CONMET - Meteorologia
Orihuela Pinto, Luis Instituto Geofísico del Perú
Pegion, Philip NOAA/ESRL/PSD CIRES
Pena, Malaquias IMSG at EMC
Penny, Andrew SRG/NHC
Pettegrew, Brian Aviation Weather Center
Porter, Jim NYCDEP Bureau of Water Supply
QIAN, Qifeng National Meteorological Center of China
Reddy, Venugopal INCOIS
Ren, Renli National Climate Center of China
Romine, Glen NCAR
Saha, Suranjana EMC/NCEP
saha, suranjana EMC/NCEP
Schaake, John NOAA/NWS (Retired)
Scheck, Dr. Joshua NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Schemm, Jae-Kyung CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
schichtel, michael Weather Prediction Center
Settelmaier, Jack NOAA/NWS/Southern Region HQ
Settelmaier, Jack NOAA/NWS/Southern Region HQ
Shaffer, Mark NAVMETOCPRODEVCEN
Sheng, Jie National Meteorological Center
Shou, Yixuan University of Maryland
Siddharth, Renu Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Stein, Ariel NOAA/ARL
Stoughton, Shane US Navy
Sun, Shan NOAA ESRL
Tang, Jian National Meteorological Center of China
Temimi, Marouane Masdar Institute
Toth, Zoltan GSD/ESRL/OAR/NOAA
Valdes, Rodrigo Hydrology and Water Resources Department. University of Arizona
Vavra, Jamie National Weather Service
Ventrice, Michael The Weather Company, an IBM Business
Wagner, John NWS
Warren, Steve NOAA NGGPS
White, Glenn GCWMB/EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC
Williams, John The Weather Company, an IBM Business
Wu, Limin NWS/NWC
Wu, Limin NWS National Water Center
Xu, Li CPC/NCEP
Yang, Shunan National Meteorological Center of China
Yang, Bo NOAA EMC/SRG
Yeh, Kevin FNMOC
Yuan, Huiling Najing University
Zarlingo, Marybeth NCAR
Zhai, Danhua Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma; Chongqing Meteorological Observatory
Zhang, Yu NWS NWC
Zheng, Minghua SoMAS, Stony Brook University
Zhou, Jiayu NWS/OSTI
Zhu, Yuejian NMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Zhu, Yuejia EMC/NCEP/NWS

Select directories below to view and download documents from the 7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop.

Yuejian Zhu (Yuejian.Zhu@noaa.gov) lead organizer (EMC)

Isidora Jankov (Isidora.Jankov@noaa.gov) co-organizer (NCAR/DTC and ESRL/GSD)

Jun Du (Jun.Du@noaa.gov) support for Foreign National security clearance to NCWCP (EMC)

Walter Kolczynski (Walter.Kolczynski@noaa.gov) support for IT and remote access (EMC)

Marybeth Zarlingo (zarlingo@ucar.edu) support for logistics