7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop

ensembles workshop

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7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop

2016 Jun 13-15 at NCWCP

The 7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop will be held at NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) in College Park, Maryland during the period June 13-15, 2016. The purpose of the workshop is (i) to bring together experts and users involved in the generation and use of NCEP ensembles, (ii) to review progress on the generation and use of operational products since our last meeting in March 2014, and (iii) to discuss plans for future efforts and collaborations. The main goal of the workshop is to support NWS in its transition from single value to probabilistic forecasting. The ultimate goal is to convey forecast uncertainty in a user-relevant form. Collaborative efforts on the national (NUOPC, DTC) and international (NAEFS, NMME) scale will also be discussed.


The workshop is organized by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) jointly with the NCAR Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) whose goal is to facilitate the future testing and transition of newly developed methods into operations, with support from the Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) of NWS.
The themes include:

  1. Current state and plan of operational ensembles and products
    1. What is the current state of operational ensembles? The reviews include all scales and downstream applications, such as regional, global, climate, wave/surge, hydrological, hurricane and etc …
    2. What products and guidance are available to users? The reviews include the products from NCEP UPP, NAEFS SPP, SREF post products (and others) for public, NBP for NWS and etc…
  2. User requirements and future plans
    1. How are ensembles currently used by broader users? The reviews include NCEP centers, NWC, fields (regions and WFO/RFC), private sectors and etc…
    2. What are the evidence-based requirements for future ensemble generations? Those include future storm scale ensemble, week 3&4 global ensemble and others.
    3. How can we work together to fulfill those requirements within operational limitations? This includes the reviews of UMAC’s recommendations, plan of NGGPS, ensemble post-processing, plan for reanalysis/reforecast and others.
    4. How can we improve our services for broader users? Those will cover data distribution, product generation, product visualization, forecast verification and others.
  3. Encourage national/international community participation and cooperation
    1. How do we engage the community to encourage external model development and facilitate research-to-operations (and operations-to-research)? This includes the discussions from NCAR/DTC, NGGPS project, MMAP project, NMME, NOAA testbeds and others.
    2. How can external developers make the R2O process easier, making it more likely their work will be incorporated operationally?
    3. How can we enhance national cooperation through various projects? This includes ESPC/NUOPC, NMME and others.
    4. How can different nations increase cooperation to improve (combined) ensemble products and future development? This includes experiences sharing from NAEFS, NMME, many foreign national centers (and institutions).

Agenda

Final Agenda (.pdf) - updated 6/8/2016

Remote Access Instructions | 7th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop — 2016 Jun 13-15

8th Annual NAEFS Workshop — 2016 Jun 15-17 College Park, MD

Video — WebEx

Audio

  • Audio — Please keep your phone muted unless asking a question!
  • 866-756-2072 4546287#

Problems? Contact Walter Kolczynski: Walter.Kolczynski@noaa.gov

*Remote Access instructions can be found on the Agenda page.

Hotels in the area of the NCWCP Building

Residence Inn, Greenbelt

6320 Golden Triangle Drive
Greenbelt, MD 20770
Phone 301-982-1600
Standard Rate start at $233.00 but if you are a Marriott Rewards Member, it may be a little cheaper.
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly.
Shuttle is available.  Check at Front Desk for scheduling shuttle.

Hilton Garden Inn

7810 Walker Drive, 
Greenbelt, Maryland, 20770
Phone 301-474-7400 
FAX: 301-474-7411
Standard Rate start at $189.00
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly.
Shuttle is available. Check at Front Desk for schedule shuttle.

Holiday Inn

10000 Baltimore Blvd. 
College Park, Maryland 
Phone: 301-345-6700 
Fax: 301-982-4361 
Standard Rates start at $133.00
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly
Shuttle is available. Check at Front Desk for scheduling shuttle.

Best Western

8419 Baltimore Avenue
College Park, Maryland, 20740-2437, US 
Phone: 301-220-0505
Fax: 301-220-0355
Standard Rates start at $143.00
Please note that these rates may change and for up to date rates contact the hotel directly.
No Shuttle Service Available.

Driving Directions: 5830 University Research Court

From: North

  • 495 East (Inner Loop) to MD 201, Kenilworth Ave. South
  • Right on River Road (this has a very small turning lane and can be hard to see)
  • Right on University Research Court (Street sign is very small)
  • Left into the site near the end of the cul-de-sac
  • Right into the parking area / garage

From: South

  • 495 North (Outer Loop toward Baltimore/College Park) to MD 201, Kenilworth Ave. South
  • Right on River Road (this has a very small turning lane and can be hard to see)
  • Right on University Research Court (Street sign is very small)
  • Left into the site near the end of the cul-de-sac
  • Stay to far right lane (near guard station) to identify yourself to the security guard
  • Right into the parking area / garage
directions