5th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop

5th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop


  • About
  • Schedule and Presentations


May 10-12, 2011


Holiday Inn Laurel West, Laurel, Maryland


The 5th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop will be held at a hotel near Washington DC in Maryland during the period May 10-12, 2011. The purpose of this workshop is to bring together experts and users involved in the generation and use of NCEP ensembles, to review progress on the generation and use of operational products since our last meeting in May 2008, and to discuss plans for future efforts and collaborations. The main goal of the workshop is to support NWS in its transition from single value to probabilistic forecasting. The ultimate goal is to convey forecast uncertainty in a user relevant form. Collaborative efforts on the national (NUOPC, DTC) and international (NAEFS, GIFS/TIGGE) scale will also be discussed. The workshop is organized by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center jointly with the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Ensemble Testbed (DET) whose goal is to facilitate the testing and transition of newly developed methods into operations, with support from the Office of Science and Technology (OST) of NWS.

The proposed topics will include:
    1. NCEP operational ensemble systems;
    2. NCEP generated ensemble products;
    3. NWS ensemble based probabilistic products (or guidance);
    4. NCEP service centers’ reviews and future requests;
    5. NWS regions and WFO/RFC reviews and requests;
    6. National research/development community, private sector, DET, NUOPC reviews;
    7. International developers/users reviews (including NAEFS, GIFS/TIGGE);
    8. Ensemble data and product distribution, access and demonstration;
    9. Working group discussions
The 4th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop information could be found at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/UserWkshop_May2008.html



May 10 – Tuesday

    8:00-8:30am       Welcome, system set up and logistics
    8:30-8:50am       Bill Lapenta: Opening remark (Themes and goals of workshop)

  8:50-10:00am      NCEP ensemble system (Chairs: Lapenta/Zhu)

                                Jun Du: SREF (15/5)i
                                Dinhchen Hou: GEFS (15/5)i
                                Sura Saha: CFSRR (8/2)
                                Jose-Henrique Alves: Wave ensemble (8/2)
                               Question and discussion (10)

10:00-10:20am      Coffee Break

10:20-12:00am      NCEP generated ensemble products (Chairs: Novak/Zhu)

                                Jun Du/Binbin Zhou: HREF/VSREF (15/5)
                                Bo Cui: NAEFS products (15/5)
                                Yan Luo: Bias correction for precipitation forecast (15/5)
                                Guangping Lou: Ensemble tracks (10/5) <
                                Dan Collins: week-2 products (10/5)
                               Question and discussion (10)

  12:00-1:30pm       Lunch break

    1:30-2:20pm      NWS ensemble based products & applications (Chairs: Novak/Zhu)

                                John Wagner: EKDMOS (15/5)
                                Julie Demargne: Ensemble application for hydrology (15/5)
                               Question and discussion (10)

    2:20-3:10pm      NCEP service centers, WFO/RFC reviews and requests
                               (Chair: Matt Peroutka)

                                Dave Novak: HPC’s review (25/5)
                                Joseph Sienkiewicza: OPC’s review (15/5)

    3:10-3:30pm      Coffee Break

    3:30-5:30pm      NCEP service centers, WFO/RFC reviews and requests (cont.)

                                Israel Jirak: SPC’s review (15/5)
                                Steve Silberberg: AWC’s review (15/5)
                                Dave Unger: CPC’s review (15/5)
                                Richard Grumm: WFO application of ensemble forecast (15/5)
                                Randy Graham: demonstration of ensemble applications
                                (12/3) – remote
                                Richard Pasch: NHC’s review (12/3) – remote
                               Question and discussion (10)

    5:30-6:30pm      Reception

            6:30pm      End of day

May 11 – Wednesday

    8:00-8:30am      System set up

    8:30-9:50am      International community review (NAEFS, TIGGE/GIFS) (Chair: Toth)

                                Ken Mylne/Richard Swinbank: Application of Ensembles at the
                               Met Office (15/5) - remote
                                Benoit Archambault: Canadian Ensemble System and Products:
                               An Update (15/5)
                                Rene Lobato: NAEFS application at SNM/Mexico (15/5)
                                Anastasia Bundel: Ensemble system and application in Russia (15/5)

  9:50-10:10am      Coffee break

10:10-11:20am      International community review (NAEFS, TIGGE/GIFS)

                                Xiaoli Li/Kan Dai: Ensemble application in China (15/5)
                                Hsiao-Chung Tsai : NCEP GEFS Application at CWB (15/5)
                                Malaquias Pena: NA THORPEX’s connection (12/3)
                                Zoltan Toth: Plans for the Global Interactive Forecast System
                               GIFS (12/3)

11:20-12:10am      National research/development community and private sectors
                               (Chairs: Brown/Hamill)

                                Peter Manousos: Private sector review (first energy corp) (15/5)
                                Tom Hamill: Reforecast/Hybrid and EnKF (25/5)

  12:10-1:30pm      Lunch break

    1:30-3:00pm      National research/development community and private sectors
                                (Chairs: Brown/Hamill)

                                Tony Eckel: R &D priority of uncertainty forecast – remote (15/5)
                                Tom Hamill: Summary for HFIP ensemble workshop (15/5)
                                Brian Etherton: DTC/DET’s connection (15/5)
                                Dave McCarren: NUOPC status and plan (15/5)
                                Bill Kuo: High resolution ensemble assimilation for tropical storm

    3:10-3:30pm      Break

    3:20-5:10pm      National research/development community, private sectors
                               (Chairs: Brown/Hamill)

                                Jiayi Peng: Hurricane track forecast from multi-model ensembles
                                Paula McCaslin: Ensemble-related products and tools (15/5)
                                )Barbra Brown: Ensemble verification (15/5)
                                Scott Rentschler/Evan Kuchera, Joshua Hacker/Judith Berner:
                               The Air Force Weather Ensemble Prediction System (AFWEPS) and
                               Further development in AFWA’s Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction
                               System (25/5)
                               Discussion and question (10)

            5:10pm      End of day

May 12 – Thursday

     8:00-8:30am      System set up, preparing

    8:30-10:10am     Data distribution, access, demonstration and training
                               (Chair: Brian Etherton)

                                Jordan Alpert: Ensemble data access through NOMADS (25/5)
                                Bill Bua: COMET education (15/5)
                                Richard Wobus: GEFS’s data distribution (15/5)
                                Jun Du: SREF’s data distribution (15/5)
                               Discussion and question (10)

10:10-10:30am      Coffee Break

10:30-12:00pm       Zoltan Toth/Yuejian Zhu: Summary from last ensemble workshop

                               Working group discussion (system configuration, post-processing,
                               product generation, data access)

  12:00-1:30pm      Lunch break

    1:30-3:00pm      Working groups discussion (system configuration, post-processing,
                               product generation, data access)

    3:00-3:20pm      Break

    3:20-4:00pm      Working groups report and summary
    4:00-4:20pm      Louis Uccellini: Conclusion remark

            4:20pm      Adjourn

    Leading for group discussion: Tom Hamill and Brian Etherton – system configuration
     Zoltan Toth and Matt Peroutka – post process
     Dave Novak and Jun Du – product generation
     Jordon Aplert and Barbara Brown – data access


The workshop will be held at the Holiday Inn Laurel West, 15101 Sweitzer Ln, Laurel, MD 20707.


Book at Holiday Inn Laurel West for a special lodging rate of $119 per night. The Holiday Inn Laurel West is located at 15101 Sweitzer Ln, Laurel, MD 20707, and is close to shopping areas and restaurants. You can make reservations with them at 301-776-5300 or at http://www.holidayinn.com/hotels/gb/en/laurel/waslm/hoteldetail The Group Name is Ensemble Users Workshop and Group Block Code is EUW.


Email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register for the workshop.

Please provide the following contact information.

Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:
Name to be used for Name Badge:

Please check the days you plan to attend.

Tuesday, 5/10            [   ] Yes    [   ] No
Wednesday, 5/11       [   ] Yes    [   ] No
Thursday, 5/12           [   ] Yes    [   ] No

Registration is free. This workshop is sponsored by OST/NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center jointly with NCAR/DTC Ensemble Testbed.

The workshop presentations will be available for remote attendance by GoTo Meeting.

If you'd like to participate remotely, email: Pam Johnson (johnsonp@ucar.edu) to register.

Please provide the following contact information.

Abbreviation (acronym) for your institution:

GoToMeeting Information:

1. Please join my meeting.

2. Join the conference call:
to be provided separately.

Meeting ID: 447-614-248

Online Meetings Made Easy™

Here's the information for call in (for all 3 days):

Toll-free number: 888-324-7573
Toll number: 1-630-395-0129

Passcode: 39972