METplus Solutions for Continuous Forecast Verification
METplus Solutions for Continuous Forecast VerificationMETplus Solutions for Continuous Forecast Verification
Now that you know a bit more about continuous, deterministic forecasts and the related statistics, it’s time to show how you can access those same statistics in METplus!
Unsurprisingly METplus requires a slightly different approach to continuous variables and the thresholds that are used on these datasets. Rather than the cat_thresh arrays that are used for categorical variable fields, METplus uses cnt_thresh for filtering data prior to computing continuous statistics. Keep that in mind if you end up with a blank continuous line type file output; you may have not applied the correct thresholds!
In order to better understand the delineation between METplus, MET, and METplus wrappers which are used frequently throughout this tutorial but are NOT interchangeable, the following definitions are provided for clarity:
- METplus is best visualized as an overarching framework with individual components. It encapsulates all of the repositories: MET, METplus wrappers, METdataio, METcalcpy, and METplotpy.
- MET serves as the core statistical component that ingests the provided fields and commands to compute user-requested statistics and diagnostics.
- METplus wrappers is a suite of Python wrappers that provide low-level automation of MET tools and plotting capability. While there are examples of calling METplus wrappers without any underlying MET usage, these are the exception rather than the rule
MET Solutions
The MET User’s Guide provides an Appendix that dives into each and every statistical measure that it calculates, as well as the line type it is a part of. Statistics are grouped together by application and type and are available to METplus users in line types. For example, many of the statistics that were discussed above can be found in the Continuous Statistics (CNT) line type, which logically groups together statistics based on continuous variable fields.
For MET, which line types are output depends on your selection of the appropriate line type using the output_flag dictionary. Note that certain line types may or may not be available in every tool: for example, both Point-Stat and Grid-Stat produce CNT line types, which allows users access to the various continuous statistics for both point-based observations and gridded observations. But Ensemble-Stat is the only tool that can generate a Ranked Probability Score (RPS) line type which contains statistics relevant to the analysis of ensemble forecasts. If you don’t see your desired statistic in the line type or tool you’d expect it to be in, be sure to check the Appendix to see if the statistic is available in MET and which line type it’s currently grouped with.
As for the previous statistics that were discussed, here’s a link to the User’s Guide Appendix entry that discusses its use in MET:
- ME
- MAE
- MSE
- RMSE
- S (note that the linked s is for forecast; the observation s2 is just below it)
- MBIAS
- PR_CORR
- SP_CORR
- 𝝉 or KT_CORR
- ANOM_CORR
METplus Wrapper Solutions
The same statistics that are available in MET are also available with the METplus wrappers. To better understand how MET configuration options for statistics translate to METplus wrapper configuration options, you can utilize the Statistics and Diagnostics Section of the METplus wrappers User’s Guide, which lists all of the available statistics through the wrappers, including what tools can output what statistics. To access the line type through the tool, find your desired tool in the list of available commands for that tool. Once you do, you’ll see the tool will have several options that contain _OUTPUT_FLAG_. These will exhibit the same behavior and accept the same settings as the line types in MET’s output_flag dictionary, so be sure to review the available settings to get the line type output you want.